It’s time for a post that doesn’t read like a diary entry.  Today’s post will discuss technology trends that Kip double-plus uncalled.

First up, cell phones with cameras.  When I was working for a cell phone company in 2002, they were just starting to put cameras on their phones.  They even told me that in Japan, Korea, and western Europe (whose cell phone markets are about 3, 3, and 2 years ahead of America, respectively) cameras on cell phones were a big deal.  I still thought “why would anyone want a camera on their phone??”  Apparently I didn’t anticipate the number of people in the toddler-to-preteen age bracket that would get cell phones.  Now those people can appreciate something as useless as a camera on a phone.  Don’t get me started on the Weekly Jamster Plan and their stupid commercials.

Next, we have MP3 players.  Back before the turn of the century (by which I mean—incorrectly—the turn from 1999-2000), MP3’s were still difficult to come by.  I didn’t anticipate how easily attainable they’d become.  I thought “a portable MP3 player might be useful to a few geeks but most people won’t bother to figure them out.”  Wrong again.  I also thought they were too expensive and that something like a Discman that played MP3 cd’s would be a much cheaper alternative.  That also didn’t really catch on (except in car stereos).

Another big one is the Java programming language.  I just didn’t think people would put up with the lagging performance, and I thought Swing GUI’s were teh suck.  Well Swing got a little prettier (if you know what you’re doing anyway) and computers got a lot more RAM.  With a ton of RAM, Java works great.  If you’re into OOP, it’s also much easier to program in than... say... C++.  At least, I like it more (even though I claimed otherwise for years).

Now lets talk about Zip Drives.  I thought that these things were gonna be huge.  I thought almost every computer purchased after like 2001 or so would come standard with one.  I know I got one for my PC I got in 2000.  Unfortunately, CD-R drives proved a lot cheaper, and now thumb drives are faster and cheaper than zip drives and require no special hardware (assuming USB is available of course).  I can’t honestly think of a situation where a zip drive would be the appropriate solution for a storage problem.  The one in my computer is now a vestigial organ: it remains in place but is not connected to anything, having been sacrificed to allow room for a DVD-ROM, a CD-R, and two hard drives.

Okay that’s all.  The moral of the story is don’t conduct stock market trades based upon Kip’s assessment of a company or product’s future level of success.  That having been said, I will leave you with a prediction: ordering perishable food off the internet will not catch on.  We’ll find out in a few years I suppose.